Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Local Weather Report...

Well, as someone who lives and works in Nottingham I can honestly say that the tension is building. Ashes fever is about to take over the town and if I know the cricket fans of Nottingham it is going to be one hell of a weekend!

I have tickets for both Sat and Sun and am looking forward to it immensely, regardless of what happens it is always a brilliant time, and this year will be no different.

Slight anticlimax as tomorrow looks like being rain affected but means that we should get cricket all through the weekend which is great. The Aussies feel that the pressure is on England, they are having a laugh, they are the ones under performing, England are playing out of their skins...OK they may not keep it up but who cares, it has already been a brilliant summer of cricket. Those newcomers to cricket who have not lived through the last 17 thrashings probably dont realise how good this is!

Difficult call at the toss tomorrow but if England win it I trust Duncan Fletcher and Michael Vaughan to have worked it out, cant say the same about Ricky Ponting after Edgbaston!

Bring it on!

Tuesday, August 16, 2005

I wish I hadn't said that...

"5-0. I never set out not to win a match. So out of five Test matches we'll be trying to win them all," said Glenn McGrath. England all sqaure at 1-1 after 3 matches.

"I thought in a county game earlier this season, when he tried to reverse sweep me, that he did not have a plan, nothing has made me change my mind." Shane Warne on Andrew Strauss. 2nd Innings at Old Trafford - Warne 0-74, Strauss 106.

"Giles is a key strategy in their cog of containing, we didn't necessarily tax Giles too heavily but he was going for around five an over. We understand his role and if we can erode that role, that is going to be pretty important." John Buchanan after Lords Test. Giles has since got 8-339 at 3.4 an over.

"I'm not trying to be arrogant when I say this, but I don't really care about them. We know that if we are playing to the best of our ability then England will not come close to us." Matthew Hayden, currently averaging 24.5.

The Ashes: Session by Session

I have been doing some work on this over the past week or so to try and identify the key sessions and overall significance to the match results. The nature of the first day at Lords got me thinking, effectively England won 2 sessions out of 3 but ended the day as almost definite losers in the context of the match. In the same way that it is possible to lose a tennis match but actually win more points than your opponent.

As a guide I am awarding the session to the batting team if they score more than 90 runs for the loss of less than 3 top order wickets or less than 5 lower order wickets.

3 or more top order wickets gives it to the bowling team unless they concede more than 120 runs. I am making a judgment call in some cases.

There are some very close calls in some of the sessions, for example Freddie's match winning knock in the second innings of the Edgbaston Test was part of a session which gave England 87 runs for 4 wickets - technically an Australian point but it was so pivotal that you have to be tempted to give it to England.

At Lords I have it that Australia won by 7 sessions to 3, which sounds like a one sided game, which indeed it was. Especially as 2 of England's session were on the first day.

At Edgbaston it is closer than it looks, with England winning 6 to 4. It felt like England dominated throughout but their capitulation on day 3 undid all their good work. And according to the analysis although they lost the game, the 100-2 on the final morning is an Aussie win in the context of the session.

At Old Trafford it scores 8 to 5 in England's favour, so for a draw that does seem odd. If England could have got rid of Shane Warne quicker in the first innings it would have given them the session and reduced the number of sessions in the game so would have probably been a win by 8 to 3. Everyone was saying that Ponting's innings was pivotal but in fact it was probably Shane Warne's 90.

The only pattern so far is that the sessions analysis does reflect the result, ie you cannot win the game without winning most sessions, but you can draw!

Third Test Analysis

Run Rate

In line with my theory about run rates, a difference of 0.5 or more sets up a winning position.

England run rate 4.2
Australia run rate 3.5

Runs

England Top Order 396
Australia Top Order 278

England Middle Order 264
Australia Middle Order 148

England Tail End 14
Australia Tail End 175

A real topsy turvy one here, superb performance from England's top order who look in great nick, Australia rescued by their tail enders.

Individual Contributions

The captain's batting on both sides really took the quality of the series to a new level.

Best Bowling

Jones 7-110
Flintoff 5-136

Probably most significant was that McGrath posted his worst ever figures in the first innings.

Key Men

Vaughan: showed what he is capable off in terms of match winning batting performances.

Warne: as he said, if he got more wickets he could an all-rounder, his knock in the first innings was pivotal.

Flintoff: just getting better and better as a bowler, now rated 10 in the world.

Ponting: did a captain's job on day 5

Trescothick: batted beautifully and should have scored more but was undone by freakish bad luck

Jones: if anyone doubted why he is now a England regular, there is your answer.

Strauss: great work in second innings, albeit a bit of a one day knock, but shows he has thought hard and worked on his game

Mullets

Jason Gillespie has even got a mention on Wikipedia for his ridiculous mullet, surely it is time to see it off, ever since he started growing it his bowling has gone downhill. I dare him to cut it off and see how he bowls as Trent Bridge.

Day 5 Review: Cricket at it's best

I was really pleased to see the game end in a draw, it is the essence of cricket that sometimes [even after 5 days as my wife complains] you just cant separate two sides, they are genuinely as good eachother. Albeit that England were actually slightly better, and any Australian who saw fit to celebrate the draw yesterday will be waking up feeling a little bit silly after he realises that his team were in fact a shadow of their former selves and their dominance over England is now over.

I agree with Luke that Autralia have to strengthen somewhere and it is probably in both batting and bowling, Symonds being the obvious choice for me instead of Clarke [back] or Katich [inept].

Cricket... its better than football!

Like we didn’t know this already… but it is good of the BBC to tell everyone else:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/front_page/4153306.stm

[Thanks to Alison Hogg for this one]

Monday, August 15, 2005

Head to Head: Update

Worth having a look at the Head to head analysis now that are 3 Tests in to see if our original comments are valid. Click one each one to see the original post:

Opening Bowlers
I think it would be reasonable to say that Harmison has matched McGrath so far. He has been threatening in nearly every innings and has added a few extra balls to his repertoire. He still lacks a bit of experience and McGrath showed plenty in the second innings at Old Trafford but it will come. The England openers seem to have finally come to terms with McGrath's style, especially to the left handers.

Hoggard and Gillespie have been the real disappointments for both teams and both are struggling to keep their places.

The Captains
I called this even but I think most people would be very impressed with Michael Vaughan's captaincy. Their batting is about even, both with big hundreds at Old Trafford. Ponting made a howler by installing England at Edgbaston.

The Openers
Funnily enough I got these the wrong way round, Trescothick looks superb as does Langer. Tres was out in freakish style in both innings at Old Trafford after looking in superb nick, he will definitely pile it on in the last two tests in my mind. Hayden and Strauss have struggled until Strauss's century yesterday. Ironically I gave this to the Aussies but you have to reverse that.

The Spinners
Warne has been man of the series so far for me along with Freddie - he has been a giant for Australia. Ashley has impressed with performances beyond expectation but will never be the player that Warne is.

The Quicks
Well, whyat can you say, these guys have both come to the party and showed everyone that they are both well worth their places in their respective teams. Lee has become a new ball bowler from being on the edge of the team and Simon Jones is now a specialist reverse swing bowler taking career best figures at old Trafford. You would have to call this one even but for more positive reasons than I said!

The All Rounders
Freddie - nuff said!

The Keepers
A certain irony here as both keepers have suffered at Old Trafford with Gilchrist performing terribly with the gloves. Ironically 'the best batsman in the world' (according to Luke) has only scored 5 more runs than Jones in the 6 innings so far.

The Middle Order
This was the key as far as Luke and I were concerned and according to stats so far that has been the case. I gave this to Australia initially but with all England's batsman weighing in with runs now this may neutralise itself.

Sunday, August 14, 2005

Day 3 / 4 Review: England closing in

After a shabby day of poor weather, too many extras and generally poor cricket on Saturday it is better to focus on today's play which was much brighter and construcitve.

The Old Trafford crowd will be disappointed not too have seen Freddie and Kevin Pietersen in full flow but overall an excellent day's cricket was enjoyed. After Glenn McGrath's worst ever bowling performance in Test cricket on Thursday he returned with a fifer today with some fairly innocuous bowling round the wicket, never have I seen him quite so underwhlemed by the events of the day.

England took the initiative form the first session, economically dismissing the Aussie tail and then moving on to build a solid lead. Lots more missed chances and woeful fielding from the Aussies who look genuinely bemused by what is happening to them. At least it let Geraint Jones and co off the hook for similar poor play in the first innings.

If Australia win from here then they are back with a vengeance, if England put them away it could be the Ashes won, I still think a draw is most likely. But who knows, England have had a habit of winning the tight ones, and with Michael Vaughan's off spinners looking interesting tonight we shall have to wait and see.

Friday, August 12, 2005

Luke, where are you!

I know you said you were busy at work but I am thinking that there are a lot of Aussies who are 'busy at work' right now, its like splitting up from your girlfriend: you throw yourself into the job, spend longer at the office, all to avoid confronting the truth...

Come on fella.

Day 2 Review: Advantage England

This is deja vu of the second Test, Australia are in real trouble. They are actually in danger of following on, they all made starts and all got out to poor shots or superb bowling - AGAIN!

I actually hope they dont follow on, it is not good for the bowlers. It sone of things I really believe in along with the person who is fouled in football not taking the penalty. Lets hope we see England take those wickets and bat through to he end of the day tomorrow - pending weather breaks - and then have two days to see of the Australian batters for the fourth time!

Excellent bowling from Ashley Giles today, he was genuinely dangerous all afternoon. Superb support from Jones and Flintoff. Difficult to say what input Hoggard and Harmison will have as the Test unfolds.

Blast from the past...

Wonderful to see Michael Vaughan in such lovely touch yesterday and with the luck of the gods on his side. The perfect scenario for England is for Vaughan to open with Trescothick and the sooner he gets his form back the sooner we should do it. Having a left / right combination to open is the absolute ideal senario in Test cricket. It stops bowlers getting into a rhythm and allows pressure to be alleviated.

Strauss is suffering from batting with Tres as the Aussies bowl better at left handers than any other Test team at the moment. If Strauss could nudge the odd single and change the field and the lines the bowlers are bowling he would have a much better chance of building an innings.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Gillespie has gone...

I was amazed that McGrath played today although noted that he looked in trouble in the field this afternoon. But actually I was more surprised that they are persevering with Jason Gillespie, he has got absolutely nothing to offer. I thought Karprowicz was very unlucky not to have made the team, he is easily an equal bowler and looks a better bat.

Day 1 Review: Another Great start by England

Wow, this is becoming a habit, we have started every test really well. And yes we have tailed off in each game but we have also got better, more confident and luckier, and it does not get much better than that.

There are few better sites than Vaughan in full flow and he rode his luck brilliantly. He had some great support with Trescothick looking in really good nick.

The Aussies dropped 4 catches and had Vaughan clean bowled off a no ball, this is unheard of and can only be down to the seed of doubt that we have managed to plant at Edgbaston. I reckon they still thought they would win the last test and were more disappointed than they let on. There is a very thin line and the tables have definitely turned.

However I still expect the Aussies to bowl us out before lunch tomorrow and bat through. With Saturday looking like a right off due to rain I still favour the draw.

Tossers

I have a theory about the toss in cricket, it has always struck me as ludicrous that a 5 day sporting event with all the logistics involved is influenced by the toss of a coin. In other sports it is the same but nowhere does it have the dramatic influence that it can have in cricket. And this is only exacerbated if the captain is on an unlucky run.

Nasser Hussain was a terrible tosser and lost two thirds of the tosses he called, when you overlay this onto his record as captain he actually did pretty well. The way to alleviate the influence of the toss is to alternate the decision across the series or each time the two sides play. Over a five test series I would always give the extra option to the away team as the home crowd is always worth a bit of an advantage. This would allow each team to plan properly and maybe even change their line up knowing that they are batting or bowling at certain times of the match.

Any thoughts?

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Finally, the penny has dropped...

The Old Trafford pitch has been prepared to Caribbean standards, that is fantastic news for England. Regardless of the result we are finally getting some joined up thinking between the ECB, the players and the test venues. How long has that taken!

It doesn't guarantee a result but at least it shows some nouse on the part of the groundstaff. I am sure Brett Lee and Gelnn McGrath will be looking forward to it too...oh no, they aren't playing! Shame.

Sunday, August 07, 2005

Second Test Analysis

Run Rate
In line with my theory about run rates, it definitely made a difference here, the runs that England scored on the first day was fundamental to their win.

England run rate 4.5
Australia run rate 4.2

Runs

England Top Order 190
Australia Top Order 202

England Middle Order 269
Australia Middle Order 188

England Tail End 96
Australia Tail End 127

Again key difference is in the middle order, just a reminder: Luke and I predicted this.

Individual contribution
Undeniably a stunning match winning contribution from Freddie, putting to bed any doubts about him being able to perform on the biggest stage. I think he has to be content with 2 or 3 wickets in each innings and 100 runs as his target for any match. He is compared to Botham a lot but people forget how good a bowler Botham was, he was the best bowler in the world for several years and Flintoff will never be that, just check how many and 10 wicket hauls Botham has compared to Freddie. But he was the difference here and lets hope he pushes on from this brilliant performance at Old Trafford.

Flintoff 141 and 7-131

Best Bowling

Warne 10-162
Flintoff 7-131

Key Men

Harmison: not many wickets but 2 very key ones in the second innings.
Warne: total handful as usual - expect even more
Flintoff: the architect of the win with devastating batting in both innings
Lee: stepped out from the shadow of McGrath in the second innings
Trescothick: more of the same please Marcus
Langar: despite pummeling looked in better nick

McGrath's tour hanging in balance

Please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please...

Link to BBC Story

No big scores yet...

Two test matches, just sneaking into the 4th day, no 100s yet from either team, bowlers dominant - this is a most unusual series so far. I think we can expect some more pragmatic batting from both teams at Old Trafford with a high scoring draw on the cards. All the top order batsman seem to have improved during this match and at least one of them from each side should make a ton in the next game. We need something to settle the nerves before the last two tests at Trent bridge and the Oval, two of England's favourite grounds.

Day 4 Review: Thank God!

Fuck, that was close. I couldn't watch, I used to watch Doctor Who through my fingers, from behind the sofa, scared shitless when I was a kid but that was much worse. You can never write the Aussies off and they got way too close for comfort. To lose that one would have been devastating, but despite vistory England must look to improve still further, the batting in the second innings was poor. The bowling was generally excellent and the fielding much improved. This could be a huge turning point for England this Summer. Bring on Old Trafford!

Saturday, August 06, 2005

Test Match Venues

There has been huge controversy in England about the fact that one of the main test venues is going to miss out each season. Headingly is the unlucky venue this year and has been pinpointed as the weakest link as most of the matches end within 3 days, cutting back the revenue for the ECB. Old Trafford was close as they have problems with weather, Manchester = rain.

The funny thing is that although Headingly is a lottery I bet if the England players had to vote, it would be Lords that would get the push. Lots of glory and all that but until England bury the hoodoo against Australia there it will be a monkey on our backs. The opposition always play up there and you only have to look at the nervous, amateurish display that we put on last week compared to this confident, dynamic team that are currently 'winning' at Edgbaston. This Edgbaston team are the same ones who humbled the Windies, NZ and South Africa last year - and I say: lets do anything we can to help the lads and dump Lords.

Day 3 Review: 17 wickets as England save face...

England's top order should be ashamed of how they played today, if England do win this is it is down to the brilliance of Flintoff and Harmison. The bowlers have given us a fantastic chance of winning this match with the kind of flair and style to which we have become accustomed over the last few years.

180 was about 70 short of comfort for England but sometimes you have to trust in the game to sort the best team out and it is unquestionable that England have been the best team in this game so far.

It is not all over and it would be wrong to completely discount the Australians who can all bat, but it would take a brave man to bet on an Aussie win now. The last ball of the day was probably as significant as the last ball yesterday, Harmison showed extreme guile to remove Clarke who could have been the linchpin of an Aussie win.

But all the plaudits must go to Flintoff who performed heroically to set up this position.

Day 2 Review: Advantage England

100 run lead, England are improving and have rammed home the advantage today, they have limited the scoring and taken key wickets at the right times. The highlight was the two blows that Langer took off Harmison, one to the head and one to the chest, he is clearly not a great player of bounce. Vaughan captained brilliantly throughout.

Australia would have expected to bat through easily and build a lead on Saturday but several of their key players contrived to get themselves out under extreme pressure from some excellent field settings and brilliant tactical bowling.

The ball that got Strauss at the end of the day is an ominous warning to England that even without McGrath Australia are well capable of getting 10 wickets, Warne will probably hold up an end for the whole of Saturday.

Thursday, August 04, 2005

Day 1 Review: Great start by England

What a shame England didn't get some overs at the Aussie openers tonight, 1 wicket would have bought the house down and put advantage to England. As it is you would have to say that the game is well balanced. No question that the aggresive run rate bodes really well for the home side and is a dramatic improvement, but the benign conditions will be exploited by the Aussies tomorrow. The pitch does not seem to be reacting to the short stuff too well as Brett Lee's dismal 1 for 111 will testify.

If England can keep it tight they have a glimmer of hope and it will come down to when England have to face Shane Warne again, if it is Monday we might see a repeat of Lords!

A number of England's batsmen will be disappointed, including Trescothick and Vaughan who both looked in good nick and failed to reach key landmarks. Kasprowicz should be pleased with himself and Warne was in great form despite the pasting he got from Flintoff and Pietersen. Lots of positives for England including Freddie, Strauss and a wagging tail.

Great entertainment with over 400 runs and 10 wickets, but if you are being harsh 450-500 would have been better and batting up until lunch tomorrow would have felt more comfortable. We'll see.

Best part of 400 runs with an hour to go...

I'd have taken that this morning, the value of my Trent Bridge tickets has just gone up again - what a day of entertainment for the Edgbaston crowd!

lbw Warne????

How can Shane Warne get anyone out lbw, he bowls from every angle and the ball goes anywhere, only he knows what he is bowling and on the basis that you aren't going to ask him the umpire cant give anyone out.

Ashley Giles has just been given out when a ball hit him in front as a full toss, but as we saw when Strauss was out Warne moved the ball 18" after it bounced!

Another fantastic start by England...

Like at Lords England have gone in at lunch feeling pretty good. Ponting will be disappointed, but his attack apart from a couple of exquisite balls from Warne looked very ordinary. From an England perspective to get to 100-0 is all you can ask from your openers. Good session from England - can they build on it?

McGrath is out of Edgbaston Test

Oh no, is he really, I'm absolutely gutted!

His old bones gave up on him in the warm up, maybe we should postpone the match for a day to give him a chance to recover?

That might change Ponting's mind at the toss, he was determined to bowl...

England are unchanged.

Link to BBC Website

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Calm before the storm...

It has been very quiet recently with lots of quiet posturing by the England team and a little scare for the captian's elbow and a general air of confidence from the Aussies.

Tough one to call, England can only improve from Lords and I dont think the Aussies can play much better from a bowling point of view. So it will be down to batting yet again, and specifically Englands. I am more optimistic than I have been for a few days and hopeful that we will make a better showing. I am tipping the draw, partially down to the weather and the pitch report, and because if we dont draw this one we are f**cked!

Monday, August 01, 2005

Collingwood Call

Paul Collingwood has been called up to the squad to give England the option of playing another batsman and some wobbly seam if required. This could be bad for Ashley Giles as it would be unlikely that one of the seamers would be dropped at this stage.

The Collingwood call has to be down to batting only, I am not altogether sure about his technique, not disimilar to a few of the batsman around today I guess, probably a similar problem with Shane Warne through not having played him much but other than that a fairly aggresive move on the part of the England management.

And of course there is his excellent fielding which will not go amiss after the pitiful display at Lords. I am starting to think that the England team were a bit nervous at Lords and will recover some composure at Edgbaston - the missed catches speak volumes. Another good reason to not open a series there!