Analysis of the First Test...

Here are the significant stats from the first test which may help work out where the rest of the series is going to go:

Top order runs [first 3 batsmen]

England 90
Australia 143

Not much in it overall, but obviously the performance in the first innings will not help England and Vaughan's performance compared to his innings last year at Lords is shocking.

Middle order runs [batsmen 4-7]

England 174
Australia 299

Double! As predicted by myself and Luke - this is where the Ashes will be won and lost

Tailend runs [last 4 batsmen]

England 42
Australia 85

Double the runs again, although the Aussie tail batted in the easiest conditions of the match, still the 4 0's on the last day were pitiful.

This is currently showing that the real difference is in the middle order, and specifically 1 stand between Clarke and Martin on day 2 of 155, quick footnote, Clarke was dropped on 21 by Pietersen.

Bowling

The bowling figures are not specifically significant at this stage with the exception of the spell by Glenn McGrath of 5 wickets for 11 runs at the end of day 1.

Harmison has performed well overall with 8-97 at 2.6 per over against the world champions. The key difference is Shane Warne who ended with 6-83. the best figures were McGrath with 9-82, although this was boosted by Elgland's limp tail. The killer combination of McGrath at the beginning and Warne at the end is the real weapon that the Aussies have.

Run Rates

Probably the most significant element is the comparable run rates. Over the last few years it has been noticeable that England have lifted their run rate, this helps create match winning positions and is the reason that at the end of day 1 Australia were in the box seat despite winning only one session.

England run rate 3.16
Australia run rate 4.07

My theory is that if you can outscore your opponent by 0.5 run per over you have a much greater chance of winning - it would be interesting to see if it is correct.

Average score per wicket

The key stat that England can build on is that they took 20 wickets, something which they have struggled to do consistently against Australia. Too many times in recent years the Aussies been able to declare and control the match. There were not many moments in this Test when declaration would have been on Ponting's mind, that is a step forward, albeit not enough to affect the result of the series overall.

England 16.75 [pitiful]
Australia 28.7

This is low for Australia but obviously significant that it is well higher than England. Monitoring the difference between these will be interesting.

Conclusions

The biggest conclusion has to be that England have not scored heavily enough to support their excellent bowling performance and to cover up their woeful fielding!

It does look like the Pietersen decision is vindicated as he was the only England batsman to come out the match with any credit at all. And despite all the vitriol Mcgrath and Warne are still the top bowling combination in world cricket, taking 15 of the 20 wickets. I can see MacGill playing instead of Gillespie in later tests as he was totally ineffectual.

As Australia's batsman increase in confidence this looks ominous for England. As Dennis Lillee said yesterday, just because England have got to number 2 in the rankings it doesn't mean that Australia have slipped.